President Trump's tariff policies dominated 2025, with automakers strategically spreading costs globally and adjusting product offerings. Relaxed emissions standards benefited U.S.-based manufacturers, while Asian automakers increased imports despite tariff pressures.
Production tracked below 2024 levels for most of the year, with tariff uncertainty affecting planning.
China's share grew by 5 percentage points while U.S. share declined by nearly 1 point.
Based on ~10.1M vehicles × $18,235 value added per vehicle. Down ~$4B from 2024 due to lower production volume.
Direct ($184B) + Supply Chain ($635B) using 4.45x manufacturing multiplier. Consistent with BEA Input-Output methodology.
Adding induced effects (worker spending): $184B Direct + $635B Indirect + $405B Induced. Represents ~4.5% of U.S. GDP.
Key Insight: The U.S. is now producing 2 million fewer vehicles annually than at its 2015 peak, representing approximately $36 billion in lost direct value added and $240 billion in lost GDP impact each year.
China gained 5 percentage points of global market share from 2020 to 2025. Here's who lost ground:
China captured all 5 points lost by developed economies, while India and Mexico grew by taking share from smaller producers.
Key Insight: Each percentage point of global market share is worth $2.6 billion MORE in 2025 than in 2020 due to market growth. China's 5-point gain represents not just share shift, but +9.3 million additional vehicles annually.
S&P Global forecasts continued softness due to tariff impacts and EV transition challenges.
Affordability concerns and higher interest rates expected to dampen demand.
S&P Global Mobility — December 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
Alliance for Automotive Innovation — Reading the Meter (December 5, 2025)
Cox Automotive — December 2025 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast
CAAM — China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (December 2025)
Note: 2025 full-year figures include December estimates/forecasts. U.S. production is estimated as ~66% of North American production based on historical ratios. Market share calculations use estimated global production of ~92 million vehicles.