Counterfactual Economic Analysis

U.S. Auto Market Share:
Recovery → Peak → Decline

From 2010 to 2015, the U.S. grew its global share from 10.00% to 13.33%. Since 2015, that share has fallen to 11.42%. This analysis tracks the full journey and quantifies the economic impact.

2010 U.S. Market Share
10.00%

Post-Recession Low

2015 Peak Share
13.33%

+3.33 pts from 2010

2024 Current Share
11.42%

-1.91 pts from peak

Net Change (2010-2024)
+1.42%

Still above 2010 baseline

U.S. Global Market Share Journey (2010-2024)
The U.S. recovered strongly from the 2008-09 recession, peaked in 2015, then declined. The story has three distinct phases.
2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320248%10%12%15%
2010: Post-Recession (10.0%)
2015: Peak (13.33%)
2024: Current (11.42%)
Gains vs. 2010 Baseline
Compared to post-recession 2010, the U.S. has OUTPERFORMED its baseline share every year since.
20102012201420162018202020222024$0B$450B$900B$1350B$1800B
  • Cumulative GDP Gain vs 2010
Cumulative GDP Gain (2010-2024)
+$1.64 Trillion
Above what 10% share would have produced
Losses vs. 2015 Peak
Since the 2015 peak, declining share has cost the U.S. economy nearly $1 trillion in potential GDP.
201520162017201820192020202120222024$0B$250B$500B$750B$1000B
  • Cumulative GDP Lost vs Peak
Cumulative GDP Lost (2016-2024)
-$866.6 Billion
Below what 13.33% share would have produced
Global Market Share: U.S. vs. China (2010-2024)
While U.S. share rose then fell, China's share grew steadily from 23.5% to 33.8%.
2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320240%10%20%30%40%
  • United States
  • China
2024 Economic Impact: Two Perspectives
How you measure "success" depends on your baseline.
vs. 2010 Baseline (10.00%)
Extra Vehicles Produced
+1.31M
Extra Direct Value Added
+$23.9B
Extra GDP Impact
+$159.4B
vs. 2015 Peak (13.33%)
Lost Vehicles
-1.77M
Lost Direct Value Added
-$32.3B
Lost GDP Impact
-$215.5B
Cumulative GDP Gain vs 2010 (2010-2024)
+$1.64T
The U.S. has outperformed its 2010 baseline every year
Cumulative GDP Lost vs Peak (2016-2024)
-$866.6B
Nearly $1 Trillion in lost potential since 2015 peak
Key Insight

The U.S. auto industry's current 11.42% global market share is 14% higher than its post-recession 2010 level, but 14% lower than its 2015 peak. The question for policymakers is: Is the goal to maintain gains over 2010, or to recapture the 2015 peak?

Regaining the 2015 peak share would require producing an additional 1.77 million vehicles annually, generating $215 billion in GDP and supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Methodology & Assumptions

2010 Baseline: U.S. global market share of 10.00% (7.76M vehicles out of 77.6M global production) — the post-recession recovery starting point.

2015 Peak: U.S. global market share of 13.33% (12.1M vehicles out of 90.8M global production) — the highest share in the 2010s.

Counterfactual: Each year's global production is multiplied by the baseline share (10.00% or 13.33%) to calculate what U.S. production would have been if market share remained constant.

Value Added per Vehicle: $18,235 (derived from $186B direct value added ÷ 10.2M vehicles).

Multipliers: Manufacturing multiplier of 4.45x (BEA Input-Output) and GDP multiplier of 6.67x (Type II, including induced effects).

Sources: OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers), BEA Input-Output Tables, Federal Reserve Economic Data.