Table of Contents
1. Raw Data Inputs
1.1 U.S. Auto Production Data
Physical production volumes and market metrics
| Metric | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Light Vehicle Production | 10.2 million units | 2024 | OICA / IHS Markit |
| Average Transaction Price (ATP) | $48,724 | 2024 | Kelley Blue Book |
| Global Auto Production | 92.0 million units | 2024 | OICA |
| U.S. Global Market Share | 11.09% | 2024 | Calculated (10.2M / 92.0M) |
| China Production | 31.0 million units | 2024 | OICA / CAAM |
| China Global Market Share | 33.7% | 2024 | Calculated (31.0M / 92.0M) |
1.2 Value Added Data (BEA)
Economic output and value added from Bureau of Economic Analysis
| Metric | NAICS Code | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Vehicles Value Added | 3361 | $98.2 billion | BEA GDP by Industry |
| Motor Vehicle Bodies & Trailers | 3362 | $18.4 billion | BEA GDP by Industry |
| Motor Vehicle Parts | 3363 | $69.3 billion | BEA GDP by Industry |
| Total Auto Industry Value Added | 3361-3363 | $185.9 billion ≈ $186B | Sum of above |
| Total U.S. Manufacturing Value Added | 31-33 | $2,912 billion | BEA GDP by Industry |
| U.S. GDP (Total) | - | $28,500 billion | BEA / BLS |
1.3 Gross Output Data (BEA)
Total industry output before netting intermediate inputs
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Light Vehicle Sales (Domestic) | ~$500 billion | 10.2M × $48,724 ATP |
| Heavy Duty Trucks & Trailers | ~$220 billion | BEA Gross Output |
| Vehicle Exports | $77 billion | ITA / Census Bureau |
| Parts Exports | $83 billion | ITA / Census Bureau |
| Aftermarket Parts (Domestic) | ~$90 billion | AAIA / BEA |
| Total Industry Gross Output | ~$970 billion | BEA Gross Output by Industry |
1.4 Trade Data
Import and export flows for auto industry
| Flow | Country/Region | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | All Countries | $160 billion | ITA |
| Imports (Intermediate Inputs) | Mexico | ~$42 billion | Census Bureau / Fed |
| Imports (Intermediate Inputs) | Canada | ~$18 billion | Census Bureau / Fed |
| Imports (Intermediate Inputs) | China | ~$12 billion | Census Bureau / Fed |
| Imports (Intermediate Inputs) | Other | ~$28 billion | Census Bureau / Fed |
| Total Imported Inputs | All Countries | ~$100 billion | Federal Reserve Note |
2. Multipliers & Coefficients
2.1 BEA Input-Output Multipliers
Economic multipliers from BEA Total Requirements tables
| Multiplier Type | Value | Interpretation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct Effect | 1.00 | Initial output from auto industry | Definition |
| Indirect Effect (Type I) | 3.45 | Supply chain purchases from other industries | BEA I-O Tables |
| Manufacturing Multiplier (Type I) | 4.45 | Direct + Indirect effects | 1.00 + 3.45 |
| Induced Effect | 2.22 | Worker spending from wages earned | BEA I-O Tables |
| Total Multiplier (Type II) | 6.67 | Direct + Indirect + Induced | BEA I-O Tables |
Important Note on Multiplier Usage:
- Type I (4.45x) is used for calculating Manufacturing Impact - the $827B figure
- Type II (6.67x) is used for calculating Total Economic Impact - the $1.24T figure
- Type II includes household spending effects and is appropriate for broader GDP impact analysis
2.2 Derived Coefficients
Calculated ratios used in analysis
| Coefficient | Value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Value Added per Vehicle | $18,235 | $186B ÷ 10.2M vehicles |
| Auto Share of Manufacturing | 6.4% | $186B ÷ $2,912B |
| Auto + Supply Chain Share of Manufacturing | 28.4% | $827B ÷ $2,912B |
| Import Share of Intermediate Inputs | ~32% | $100B ÷ ~$316B intermediate inputs |
3. Equations & Calculations
3.1 Core Impact Calculations
EQUATION 1: Total Manufacturing Impact
Total Manufacturing Impact = Direct Value Added × Type I Multiplier
Calculation:
$827B = $186B × 4.45
This represents the total manufacturing value added generated by the auto industry, including both direct OEM output and all upstream manufacturing suppliers.
EQUATION 2: Total Economic Impact (GDP)
Total Economic Impact = Direct Value Added × Type II Multiplier
Calculation:
$1.24T = $186B × 6.67
This represents the total GDP impact including induced effects from worker spending. This is the appropriate figure for comparing to total U.S. GDP.
EQUATION 3: Supply Chain Value Added
Supply Chain Value = Total Manufacturing Impact - Direct Value Added
Calculation:
$641B = $827B - $186B
This is the indirect value added from upstream manufacturing suppliers (steel, aluminum, plastics, electronics, etc.).
EQUATION 4: Induced Spending Impact
Induced Impact = Total Economic Impact - Total Manufacturing Impact
Calculation:
$409B = $1,240B - $827B - (adjustment for non-manufacturing)
This represents the economic activity generated by workers spending their wages on goods and services throughout the economy.
3.2 Counterfactual Analysis Calculations
What-if scenarios comparing actual vs. hypothetical outcomes
EQUATION 5: Counterfactual Production
Counterfactual Production = Global Production × Baseline Market Share
Example (2024 vs 2015 Peak):
12.27M = 92.0M × 13.33%
If U.S. maintained 2015 peak share (13.33%), production would be 12.27M vs actual 10.2M
EQUATION 6: Lost Production Volume
Lost Production = Counterfactual Production - Actual Production
Calculation:
2.07M vehicles = 12.27M - 10.2M
EQUATION 7: Lost Direct Value Added
Lost Direct Value = Lost Production × Value Added per Vehicle
Calculation:
$37.7B = 2.07M × $18,235
EQUATION 8: Lost Manufacturing Impact
Lost Manufacturing Impact = Lost Direct Value × Type I Multiplier
Calculation:
$167.8B = $37.7B × 4.45
EQUATION 9: Lost GDP Impact
Lost GDP = Lost Direct Value × Type II Multiplier
Calculation:
$251.5B = $37.7B × 6.67
3.3 Market Share Calculations
EQUATION 10: Market Share
Market Share = (Country Production ÷ Global Production) × 100
U.S. 2024:
11.09% = (10.2M ÷ 92.0M) × 100
China 2024:
33.7% = (31.0M ÷ 92.0M) × 100
EQUATION 11: Share of Manufacturing
Auto Share of Mfg = Total Auto Impact ÷ Total Mfg Value Added
Calculation:
28.4% = $827B ÷ $2,912B
3.4 Reshoring Simulator Calculations
EQUATION 12: Reshored Value
Reshored Value = Total Imports × Reshore Percentage
Example (25% Reshoring):
$25B = $100B × 25%
EQUATION 13: Economic Boost from Reshoring
Economic Boost = Reshored Value × Type I Multiplier
Example (25% Reshoring):
$111.25B = $25B × 4.45
EQUATION 14: Jobs Created from Reshoring
Jobs Created = Reshored Value ÷ Value per Job × Job Multiplier
Assumptions:
• Average manufacturing output per job: ~$200,000
• Job multiplier (direct + indirect): ~2.5
4. Source Links
Primary Data Sources
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
- Input-Output Accounts Data - Total Requirements tables, multipliers
- GDP by Industry - Value added by NAICS code
- Gross Output by Industry - Total industry output
Federal Reserve
- FEDS Notes: Sourcing Risk Index - Import share of intermediate inputs
International Trade Administration (ITA)
- SelectUSA Automotive Industry - Export data, industry overview
OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)
- Production Statistics - Global and country-level production data
Other Sources
- Kelley Blue Book - Average Transaction Price (ATP) data
- IHS Markit / S&P Global Mobility - Production forecasts
- CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) - China production data
- U.S. Census Bureau - Trade statistics
Disclaimer & Limitations
Data Currency: Most data reflects 2023-2024 figures. BEA Input-Output tables are typically released with a 2-3 year lag; the most recent complete tables are from 2022.
Multiplier Assumptions: Economic multipliers are derived from BEA Total Requirements tables and represent average effects. Actual impacts may vary based on regional factors, capacity utilization, and supply chain conditions.
Counterfactual Analysis: "What-if" scenarios assume market share changes would translate directly to production changes. In reality, factors like capacity constraints, trade policies, and demand conditions would affect outcomes.
Rounding: Some figures are rounded for presentation. Calculations use full precision values.